Water Planning Portal Tool News Scenario Testing Simulation Tools: Mythic River Scenario
Simulation Tools: Mythic River Scenario
At the second National Water Planners Forum, Mark Hampstead and Claudia Baldwin introduced the 'Mystic River Scenario': an innovative role-play scenario designed to simulate a realistic context for consideration of key water planning issues including climate change and risk assessment. The information used to design the Mythic River scenario is derived from multiple CSIRO sustainability studies, and is presented using a similar strcuture, based on the assumption that this type of information on future inflows, land use changes and projected water demand will be similar to the type of information that planners do and will use in developing water management regimes.
About the Mythic River
In the scenario, the Mythic River System consists of a catchment with national parks, water supply infrastructure, a variety of irrigated agriculture, urban industry and settlement, some small mining and an heritage listed wetlands. Recent assessments of the system show a decline in water quality and ecological health, and a significantly reduced reliability in the water supply. There is recognition in the community of the need for new water sharing arrangements, although the community is unsure what factors are going to be included, what data will be used, whether or how they will be able to be involved and make their views known, or how the plan will be formulated and discussed. The process consists of a series of successive questions posed to small working groups, who are invited to deliberate on the questions based on the information provided and formulate responses. These responses are then shared with the larger group, providing an opportunity to share methods and strategies for dealing with the issues faced by the water planner and the community in the scenario - which themsleves mirror many contemporary planning issues. The scenario was designed to elicit specific information on:
- current methods used to predict future inflows and uncertainties involved
- how to identify and assess ecological, social and economic risks associated with future inflow uncertainty
- how to identify and assess options to manage those risks, and
- how to manage the process for determining and gaining acceptance for needed tradeoffs
Through discussions and deliberations within the small working-groups, a range of ideas and approaches are identified which are of relevance for investment in water planning research and development.
About the Tool
Although this tool was used successfully with water planners from a range of jurisdictions and planning backgrounds, it could also be used to introduce the wider community to the practice of water planning or to assist policy-makers to better understand the range of issues faced by water planners. As outlined by the Citizen Science Toolbox's review of scenario roleplays, the key value of these types of activities is that participants can take risk-free positions, view situations from different perspectives, and is useful for scoping potential issues or potential conflicts in advance of a planning exercise.
