National Program for Sustainable Irrigation: Scenario Planning Tool

Scenario Testing

The National Program for Sustainable Irrigation (or NPSI) has developed a series of planning tools fo scenario planning (foresighting and the production of future scenarios) and assessing environmental impacts (via ecological risk assessments). Both approaches are described briefly in a report published as part of their Harvest program. The report provides examples of their application, and subsequent sections report on how both techniques have been applied to help shed
light on the future of irrigation in northern and southern Australia.

About the NPSI

The National Program for Sustainable Irrigation provides research and innovation to improve the environmental and productive performance of
irrigation in Australia.

The program funds and manages research projects across Australia, working at the property level with farmers, at catchment level with policy
makers and planners, and at scales that cross state and territory borders.

Scenario Development and Testing

Alternative scenarios provide one way to explore the future. Scenarios are a mixture of fact and information combined with alternative trends and social choices to create different perspectives of what the future could be. They help users understand the nature and possible impact of issues affecting the future - and to plan for them.

Scenarios present possible alternatives and should not be regarded as predictions. The process begins by identifying key drivers of the future (e.g. climate change, demand for food, water availability and environmental protection) and concentrates on those that could have most impact and which are most uncertain. Themes or ‘storylines' are developed around the drivers and three or four scenarios are then developed weaving together alternatives. In some cases, it is possible to limit the investigation to two key drivers (such as environmental protection and profitable production) and develop four scenarios from them - based on the high and low projections for each.

Download the Report

More information from the NPSI is available at http://npsi.gov.au/