Water Planning Portal Tool News Bayesian Networks Evaluation of Bayesian Networks in Participatory Water Resources Management
Evaluation of Bayesian Networks in Participatory Water Resources Management
This paper published in the journal Ecology and Society describes the development and the evaluation of a participatory decision support system based on Bayesian networks (BNs). It reports on research carried out under the NeWater project.
The research recognised that stakeholder participation is becoming increasingly important in water resources management, and that whilst there are a number of methods to facilitate the involvement of interested parties in decision making, it is often difficult to evaluate the quality of these methods because of the lack of appropriate benchmarks. This research focuses on developing and testing a set of evaluation criteria for public participation.
It also recognised that a diversity of modeling tools can be used to facilitate participatory processes. Bayesian networks are well suited to this task for a variety of reasons, including their ability to structure discussions and visual appeal.
This research found that the core value of a Bayesian network derived from its ability to simplify complex relationships for stakeholders. Simplification contributes to a better understanding of the different elements within a given system and their interrelations. This is especially important for underpinning social learning in participatory processes, and in helping participants realize the uncertainties involved in the modeling process.
Bayesian networks are presented as effective tools for engaging stakeholders in decision making, due to their ability to enable dialogical learning, while allowing for discussion and negotiation. This also allows the sources of uncertainty to be explicitly addressed. They found that the use of BNs in water planning increases the probability that strategies will be endorsed by stakeholders.
Citation
Zorrilla, P., G. Carmona, Á. De la Hera, C. Varela-Ortega, P. Martínez-Santos, J. Bromley and H. Jorgen Henriksen 2009. Evaluation of bayesian networks as a tool for participatory water resources management: application to the upper guadiana basin in spain. Ecology and Society 15(3): 12.
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