How to conduct an Electronic Simulation

Electronic Simulations

Electronic simulation allows broad scenarios to be given a 'virtual trial run' on a computer that allows the consequences to be observed and considered, and decisions made. Simulations can allow testing of the environmental consequences of choices and decisions to an entire catchment area.

Electronic simulation gives a chance to 'trial' a change and its consequences prior to implementation of those changes, without affecting the community or environment. Testing the consequences allows modification of suggested changes or innovations to produce a better outcome for the environment and community.

Method:

1. Collect background information on issue or scenario.
   
2. Determine as many factors and influences as possible, and possible/probable outcomes of changes.
   
3. With the assistance of programmers, set up model to allow simulations.
   
4. Invite representatives of relevant groups to view and discuss the scenarios.
   
5. Discuss understanding and insights gained.
   
6. If relevant, develop future planning options based on preferred scenarios.

Uses/strengths:

• Gives better results, even with limitations, when you cannot make simple extrapolations or modify trends or non-linear processes.
• Offers the option to change the conditions and see what would happen under a variety of assumptions. The latter are 'what if' options, and you learn a great deal about the subject and its future possibilities by determining which changes cause what type (and how big) of an effect.

Special considerations/weaknesses:

• Model results are only as good as the model and the assumptions on which it is based.
• Very expensive to set up, including data for validation.
• Assumes an understanding of all variables.
• Need trained programmers and technical staff.