How to conduct a Scenario Testing Workshop

Scenario Testing

Scenario testing is a way to test alternative (hypothetical) futures so as to make better choices today.

Generally, scenario testing would deliver three scenarios: a positive (or optimistic), negative (or pessimistic), and neutral (or middle of the road) scenario. These allow a more realistic assessment of future possibilities which does not assume either the best or worst outcomes. The scenarios could also include an unlikely event but one that would have a large impact were it to occur.

Method:

1. Invite participants who have knowledge of, or are affected by, the proposal or issue of interest.
2. Invite participants to identify the underlying paradigms or unwritten laws of change; trends or driving forces and collect into general categories (economy, socio/political, etcetera); and wildcards or uncertainties.
3. Consider how these might affect a situation, either singly or in combination, using these steps:
   1. review the big picture
   2. review general approaches to future studies
   3. identify what you know and what you don't know
   4. select possible paradigm shifts and use them as an overall guide
   5. cluster trends and see which driving forces are most relevant to your scenario
4. Create alternative scenarios (similar to alternate scenes in a play) by mixing wildcards with trends and driving forces; keep the number of scenarios small (four is ideal because it avoids the 'either' 'or' choice of two, and the good/bad/medium choice of three).
5. Write a brief report that states assumptions and future framework; provides observations and conclusions; gives a range of possibiltiies, and focuses on the next steps coming out of this study. Each scenario should be about one page.

Uses/strengths:

• Avoids having to model complex situations.
  
• Allows you to alter combinations and play 'what if' games (e.g. change the assumption and see what happens).
  
• Provides understanding of events and possible combinations.

Special considerations/weaknesses:

• Agreement may not be reached on what is the 'right' scenario to include (if the questions are controversial).
• Scenarios must be recognised as possibilities only, not firm predictions.
• Further work is likely required to test and assess the validity of findings from a scenario testing workshop, and possibly extensive research will be needed to generate robust outcomes.